Valve’s long-awaited Half-Life sequel might be closer than ever – at least if the internet’s latest theories are to be believed.

For several weeks now, something unusual has been happening across gaming circles. Social feeds, Reddit threads, and TikTok speculation videos are all buzzing with one big prediction: Half-Life 3 is about to be announced. Some fans have even circled specific dates, while others are convinced Valve will reveal the sequel live on stage at The Game Awards. All this despite the fact that Valve has – unsurprisingly – confirmed absolutely nothing. So… what exactly sparked this hype train?

The Mysterious “HLX” Project

Since 2021, dataminers combing through other Valve titles like DOTA 2 have uncovered recurring references to something internally labeled “HLX.” Valve hasn’t offered any explanation, but over the last four years, dataminers and fans have pieced together a consistent picture.

Based on what’s been found, HLX appears to be a single-player, non-VR first-person shooter starring a character in an HEV suit battling aliens and human soldiers across multiple levels, potentially with physics-based puzzles mixed in. Sound familiar? To most people, it looks like another Half-Life game, even if Valve hasn’t said the words out loud. Because of this, fans and several trusted leakers have started openly referring to HLX as Half-Life 3.

The idea that Valve has quietly been developing a new Half-Life entry for at least five years has already kept the community buzzing. But last week, things escalated dramatically.

A Hardware Reveal Fuels the Fire

Valve recently announced three new hardware products: the Steam Machine, the Steam Frame, and the Steam Controller. That alone got the rumor mill turning at full speed.

Valve has a history of pairing new hardware with new games—the Index launched alongside Half-Life: Alyx, and the Steam Deck arrived with Aperture Desk Job. So naturally, fans jumped to the conclusion that these new devices might launch alongside HLX (or, hopefully, Half-Life 3) sometime around 2026.

Once that idea took hold, the community went into prediction overdrive.

The Great Date Guessing Game

Two dates quickly became fan favorites:

• November 18 – the six-year anniversary of the Half-Life: Alyx announcement
• November 19 – the 27th anniversary of the original Half-Life

Then players noticed something else: a gap in Steam’s sales schedule from November 18 to December 8. Some believed Valve deliberately cleared the runway for a Half-Life 3 reveal. That theory is shaky – Valve postponing sales for a reveal is unlikely – but enthusiasm doesn’t need logic to survive.

Geoff Keighley, Wishlist Chaos, and More “Clues”

Things got even wilder when fans discovered that Geoff Keighley (the host of The Game Awards) had only one game on his Steam wishlist. When asked about it, he responded with a string of eye emojis. That was all it took for the community to lose its collective mind.

Of course, there’s one small issue: Half-Life 3 doesn’t have a Steam page, so Geoff literally couldn’t add it to a wishlist yet. Didn’t matter. The rumor bonfire got another log.

Then The Game Awards’ official Twitter account posted about Half-Life’s anniversary. People panicked again, even though, as longtime Valve reporter Tyler McVicker pointed out, the account posts the exact same anniversary message every year. But at this point, fans weren’t hearing reason.

The Hype Reaches Maximum Levels

With insiders, leakers, and journalists all hinting that Valve has something big coming, the excitement is now at full blast. Every day, the community discovers “new clues” – some compelling, others absolutely out there. Hopium levels? Completely off the charts.

Yet officially, Valve hasn’t acknowledged the existence of a new Half-Life game.

Still, there were reports of heightened security at Valve’s offices during the recent hardware reveal, which only fueled more theories. And on Steam’s official page, Valve lists two upcoming games, but only one, Deadlock, is visible. The second remains a mystery. Naturally, everyone assumes it must be Half-Life 3.

As a longtime Half-Life fan who has been waiting decades for closure, I get the excitement. But as tempting as it is to believe every clue, it’s probably best to stay cautious. Expect nothing, and if Valve does reveal something, we’ll all be pleasantly surprised.